Eskom: Eskom’s updated TDP 2022 is projecting a requirement of up to 53GW of renewable energy over the next 10 years

During the Transmission Development Plan (TDP) Public Forum yesterday, Eskom revealed that approximately 53GW of new additional generation capacity, particularly from renewable energy sources, including wind and solar, will be required for the period up to 2032 to ensure energy security in the country. This 53GW new additional power includes the current deficit of between 4 000MW and 6 000MW. This is a significant revision of the TDP 2021, which based its assumptions for new generation capacity on the Integrated Resource Plan of 2019 (IRP2019), which proposed around 30GW of new capacity by 2030. To accommodate this additional capacity, and on the assumption that obstacles to the implementation of the roll-out plan are removed, the transmission infrastructure would need to be augmented by approximately 14 200km of extra-high voltage lines and 170 transformers by 2032.

Given uncertainty in the longer term, and noting that the Integrated Resources Plan, as a policy document, is currently being updated, Eskom is placing a strong focus on the implementation of projects over the next five years. The analysis carried out reflects a requirement of approximately 2 890km of extra high voltage lines and 60 transformers requiring a capital investment of R72.2 billion by FY2027. This requires that some challenges beyond Eskom’s full control, such as the lead time to obtain servitudes, among other relevant authorisations, as well as the resource capacity in the country, be urgently addressed.

The updated TDP takes into account the deterioration of the energy availability factor (EAF) of the Eskom coal fleet, which was a key factor in the drafting of the IRP2019.

The additional generation capacity requirements also take into account Eskom’s 2035 Corporate Strategy and have considered the connection applications received from the various procurement programmes by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy (DMRE) and applications received from the non-DMRE integration programmes, as well as input from various renewable energy associations.

Accommodating this increased generation capacity means that a reliable and adequate transmission system is required to integrate and dispatch this new capacity to the load centres across the country.

Eskom’s Managing Director for Transmission, Segomoco Scheppers, says, “The next five years are very critical for security of supply. If the TDP 2022 requirements to deliver an adequate transmission network capacity by 2027 are to be met, a significant investment of R72.2 billion will be required to expand and strengthen the transmission grid over the next five years. Of this amount, R50.8 billion is required for new capacity expansion projects to meet the reliability requirements, connection of new generation capacity and loads, as well as to acquire servitudes. A further R21.4 billion is required to refurbish the existing asset base and procurement of production equipment.”

The TDP Forum is held annually as part of Eskom’s transmission licence requirements issued by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (Nersa), which requires Eskom to publish a TDP every year.

Eskom is using this forum to demonstrate its commitment to openness and transparency, which is further reflected in the depth of information shared with the stakeholders for them to keep abreast of Eskom’s operations and to make informed decisions.